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Absence of Blockbuster Drug Launches in 2014 Puts R&D Productivity at Risk
LONDON, BOSTON, TOKYO (February 5, 2014) — The past two years have brought a surge of R&D productivity, driving investor confidence and increasing market performance, but 2014 looks to tell a different tale according to the new report, “Biggest Launches 2014,” from EP Vantage.
Only three drugs slated to launch this year will achieve blockbuster status by 2018. A disappointing number compared to the 10 new molecules approved in 2013. This could all change, however, should Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) antibodies reach the market this year, according to the new report.
The report also includes an analysis of 5th Year Sales of launches between 2004-2014, utilizing EvaluatePharma consensus forecasts showing the industry's biggest hits and misses.
“While the launch timetable for 2013 performed as expected, several products saw its forecasts increase and with an incredible class of eight to 10 drugs slated to become blockbusters, 2013 proved to be a tough act to follow,” said Jonathan Gardner, report author and EP Vantage deputy news editor. “The class of 2014 will fail to match last year’s high mark. And with giant new products needed to restore faith in R&D productivity, how the lack of blockbuster drug launches will affect investor’s views of the biotech sector will be one of the interesting stories of this new year.”
Key findings in EP Vantage Biggest Launches 2014:
- The forecasted blockbusters of 2014 include GlaxoSmithKline's combination COPD therapy, Anoro Ellipta, Lundbeck's Brintellix for major depressive disorder and Celgene's psoriatic arthritis drug, Apremilast
- Diabetes is forecasted to be the biggest category of products set to launch in 2014 with oncology and anti-infectives also well represented on the list
- While small molecules still dominate new medicines, 2014 could be one of the biggest years for biological drug launches, particularly if the PD-1 antibodies make it to market
- The industry's move to "nichebuster" drugs may explain the switch from blockbuster drug development but nonetheless, billion-dollar drugs remain an indicator of the sector's productivity
The “Biggest Launches 2014” report, based on market intelligence and analysis from EvaluatePharma, can be downloaded at www.evaluategroup.com/EPVantage-Biggest-Launches-2014.
About EP Vantage
Written by a team of award-winning journalists, EP Vantage provides daily financial analysis of key industry catalysts including: regulatory and patent decisions, marketing approvals, licensing deals, and M&A – giving fresh angles and insight to both current and future industry triggers. Launched in 2007 by EvaluatePharma®, EP Vantage’s unique access to EvaluatePharma and EvaluateMedTech data allows unrivalled, forward-looking coverage of the pharmaceutical, biotech and medtech industries. Visit www.epvantage.com to sign up for a free trial. On Twitter: @epvantage .
About Evaluate Ltd.
Evaluate is the trusted source for life science market intelligence and analysis with exclusive consensus forecasts to 2018. We support life science and healthcare companies, financial institutions, consultancies and service providers in their strategic decision-making. Our services include EvaluatePharma, EvaluateClinical Trials and EvaluateMedTech. Our global team of dedicated healthcare analysts employs rigorous methodologies to deliver strategic commercial analysis. We make our services valuable by combining superior quality content, user-friendly reporting tools and outstanding customer service to solve client problems.
For more information visit: www.evaluategroup.com. On Twitter: @evaluatepharma, @evaluatemedtech, @epclinicaltrial, @epvantage.
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