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Return to Growth for Pharmaceutical Sector: Surge in Drug Approvals, R&D Productivity and Investor Confidence to Drive Expansion Through 2018
The industry is poised for a healthier turn after sales declined in 2012, says Evaluate’s “World Preview 2013, Outlook to 2018” report
LONDON and BOSTON (June 24, 2013) — According to the newly-released World Preview report from market intelligence firm Evaluate Ltd, the worst of the patent cliff is behind us. While the pharmaceutical industry is feeling the effects of last year’s decline in performance — with worldwide prescription drug sales down 1.6% — sales are forecast to start growing slowly in 2013 and then steadily increase, reaching $895 billion by 2018, according to Evaluate’s report, “World Preview 2013, Outlook to 2018: Returning to Growth.”
The sixth-edition World Preview report examines life after the patent cliff, providing top-level insight from the world’s financial markets into the expected performance of the industry between now and 2018. The report was released today at the 2013 Drug Information Association (DIA) Annual Meeting in Boston, USA, and is available as a free download at www.evaluategroup.com/wp2013.
According to the World Preview 2013, the industry will benefit from improved investor confidence and R&D productivity. Of the $227bn of global drug sales that will be at risk from generic erosion following patent expirations, only $110bn is forecast to be lost over the next five years. The main reason for this is the growing contribution of biological products to global sales. By 2018, 50% of sales of the top 100 products are predicted to come from biological products which are expected to experience less sales erosion from biosimilar competition than traditional small molecules have from generic products.
“The fall in worldwide prescription drug sales in 2012 confirms our forecast from last year,” said Anthony Raeside, Head of Research for Evaluate. “While patent expirations still threaten to stifle growth, the market is expected to grow sluggishly in 2013 with a sustained recovery occurring in 2014.”
In addition to assessing trends in prescription drug sales, the World Preview 2013 report also examines key topics including R&D spending, therapy category growth, the performance of marketed and pipeline products, and overall 2012 performance. Among this year’s key findings:
- Pfizer reigned as the top pharmaceutical company in terms of worldwide prescription drug sales in 2012, with Novartis directly behind. By 2018, Novartis will take over as the biggest pharmaceutical company for worldwide prescription drug sales
- Worldwide pharmaceutical R&D spend is forecast at $149bn in 2018 growing at an average annual rate of 1.4% between 2012 and 2018
- Teva Pharmaceuticals remained the leading generic drug maker in 2012
- The anti-coagulant market will grow 11.5% between 2012 and 2018, achieving the highest worldwide sales growth of major therapy categories. Meanwhile, within the top 100 prescription products, biological products are expected to account for more than 50% of sales in 2018
- Orphan drugs are expected to account for $127bn of sales in 2018, representing 16% of the entire worldwide prescription market
- AbbVie’s Humira is forecast to be the world’s biggest selling product in 2018
- Gilead’s hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, Sofosbuvir, remains the most valuable R&D product
For more information on the 2013 Edition of the World Preview report, visit Evaluate booth #630 at the DIA meeting. The executive summary and full report are available for download at http://www.evaluategroup.com/wp2013.
About Evaluate Ltd.
Established in 1996, Evaluate Ltd. is the leader in high quality life science sector analysis. EvaluatePharma delivers exclusive consensus forecasts and trusted commercial insight into biotech and pharmaceutical performance. EvaluateMedTech sets a new standard in integrated analysis and consensus forecasts of the global medical device and diagnostic industry. EvaluateClinical Trials delivers unique intelligence to efficiently and accurately analyze the global clinical trial landscape. A team of over 85 dedicated healthcare analysts employ rigorous methodologies to collate, organize and deliver the most-up-to-date commercial performance data available. An award winning editorial team of journalists writing under the EP Vantage name support EvaluatePharma’s analysis. The Evaluate services enable the life science community to make sound business decisions about value and opportunity. For more information please visit www.evaluategroup.com.
On Twitter: @evaluatepharma, @evaluatemedtech, @epclinicaltrial, @epvantage.
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